$100K Bitcoin? Prediction Market Odds Climb To 40%

Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $53 million in a single day this week, pushing monthly inflows past $1.16 billion — a sharp reversal after four straight months of outflows that drained more than $6 billion from those same funds.

ETF Inflows Signal A Shift In Investor Behavior

The turnaround is being read by analysts as a sign that investors are stepping back in after a prolonged selloff. Bitcoin was trading around $70,850 as of Saturday, up from lows earlier in the year, and technical indicators are pointing in a bullish direction.

The Relative Strength Index has climbed from an extreme low of 15 in January to 56, and the Supertrend indicator has flipped from bearish to bullish on the daily chart.

Prediction markets are reflecting that improved sentiment. On Kalshi, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before January 2027 has risen to 40% — its highest reading since February. Polymarket puts the odds even higher, at 50%. To hit that target, Bitcoin would need to gain roughly 35% from current levels.

Geopolitical Tensions Adding A New Dimension To Bitcoin’s Rally

Part of the story playing out in crypto markets has a geopolitical backdrop. However, the ongoing conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel has driven oil prices above $100 a barrel, which is fueling inflation concerns. In this context, the question is whether the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates this year.

Apparently, gold and stock market ETFs have seen outflows, but Bitcoin is experiencing net inflows. In this context, the situation is being used as evidence that Bitcoin is acting as a safe haven.

The picture shifted slightly Friday after a cooler-than-expected PCE inflation reading and a modest pullback in oil prices, following reports that the US waived sanctions allowing certain companies to purchase Russian oil. Bitcoin rose on that news.

On the chart, Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim its 50-day Exponential Moving Average as support rather than resistance. The Percentage Price Oscillator is approaching a bullish crossover of the zero line, which traders watch closely as a momentum signal.

Analysts say the next test for Bitcoin bulls will be whether the coin can hold above $70,000 heading into next week. If buying pressure continues to build, the psychological barriers at $80,000 and $90,000 become the next milestones on the road to a possible six-figure price.

Whether that happens by year’s end remains an open question — one that prediction markets, at least, are no longer dismissing.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView